Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,243$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(398 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,175.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,175.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $99$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(12.4 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $133$ on 2020-05-22

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,707$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(7.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,943.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(29,943.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,903$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(306 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,869.7}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,869.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $904$ on 2020-05-22

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $228,658$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(3.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,874.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(222,874.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,616$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(4.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,551.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(31,551.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,322$ on 2020-05-22

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,600,937$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,609,190.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,609,190.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $95,979$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(8.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,362.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(96,362.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,154,823$ on 2020-05-22

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $255,544$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263,726.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(263,726.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,475$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(3.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,492.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(35,492.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $217,927$ on 2020-05-22

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,809$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(2.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,293.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 56.7)}}\) (asimptote \(35,293.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,925$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(345 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,967.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,967.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,913$ on 2020-05-22

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $179,710$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(3.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{171,427.4}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(171,427.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,228$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,087.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,087.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,418$ on 2020-05-22

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 98%
Switzerland recovered 94%
Austria recovered 91%
Korea, South recovered 91%
Australia recovered 90%
Croatia recovered 89%
Andorra recovered 88%
Tunisia recovered 88%
Germany recovered 83%
Slovakia recovered 79%
Niger recovered 78%
Denmark recovered 76%
Cuba recovered 76%
Israel recovered 75%
Burkina Faso recovered 72%
Uzbekistan recovered 62%
Uruguay recovered 59%
Lithuania recovered 59%
Turkey recovered 58%
Czechia recovered 54%
Italy recovered 45%
Georgia recovered 41%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 39%
Serbia recovered 33%
Romania recovered 25%
San Marino recovered 23%
Jamaica recovered 19%
Morocco recovered 17%
Singapore recovered 16%
United Arab Emirates recovered 5%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,468$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(461 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,453.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,453.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $106$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(19.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(103.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22$ on 2020-05-22

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,436$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(4.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,583.2}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 28.3)}}\) (asimptote \(15,583.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $635$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(124 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{627.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(627.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $796$ on 2020-05-22

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,165$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(5.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,573.2}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 15.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,573.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $266$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(70.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(262.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $705$ on 2020-05-22

Australia⮸

Population $25,499,884$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,099$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,818.1}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,818.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $101$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(17.6 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(100.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $513$ on 2020-05-22